The Henry Jackson Society (HJS) has raised concerns about the Government’s strategic priorities following the release of the 2026 Spring Statement, warning that rising geopolitical instability now poses a direct fiscal threat to the United Kingdom.

Responding to the publication of the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), HJS Executive Director Alan Mendoza said the economic outlook underlines the scale of the challenge facing the country.

According to the OBR’s assessment, growth is weaker than previously expected, borrowing remains elevated and national debt continues to sit at high levels. The fiscal watchdog also highlighted significant downside risks stemming from global instability, including ongoing conflicts and energy market volatility.

Mr Mendoza said the forecasts make the situation “unmistakable,” arguing that geopolitical instability is no longer a distant concern but a direct risk to Britain’s public finances.

Defence Readiness in Focus

Despite what HJS describes as a deteriorating global security environment, the think tank said the Spring Statement did not outline a meaningful shift in defence preparedness.

“There was no meaningful step change in defence readiness, no serious acceleration in rebuilding stockpiles and no clear plan to strengthen Britain’s defence industrial base,” Mr Mendoza said.

The comments come amid heightened international tensions, with Russia’s continued military mobilisation, instability in the Middle East, and China’s expanding defence manufacturing capacity all cited as strategic concerns.

Mr Mendoza argued that when economic conditions are fragile and debt levels high, prioritisation becomes more — not less — important.

“Investment in deterrence, supply chain resilience and sovereign capability is not discretionary spending; it is economic risk management,” he said.

Global Instability and Economic Exposure

The OBR’s warning about exposure to global shocks forms a key part of HJS’s argument. Energy price volatility and the risk of wider conflict were highlighted as factors that could significantly worsen the UK’s fiscal position.

HJS contends that adversaries are preparing for prolonged strategic competition, while Britain risks operating on outdated assumptions about the global security environment.

“Russia remains on a war footing, Iran continues to destabilise the Middle East and China is expanding its military-industrial capacity at pace,” Mr Mendoza said. “Our adversaries are mobilising for sustained competition. The UK cannot afford to operate on peacetime assumptions.”

Call for Strategic Reassessment

The statement stops short of proposing specific spending figures but calls for a more robust and clearly articulated plan to strengthen national resilience.

With the OBR formally flagging geopolitical instability as a material economic risk, HJS argues that the responsibility now lies with ministers to respond decisively.

“The OBR has highlighted the risks,” Mr Mendoza concluded. “The question now is whether the Government is prepared to address them with the seriousness they demand.”

The Government has yet to respond directly to HJS’s comments, though ministers have previously stated that national security remains a core priority alongside economic stability.